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Tuesday, January 28, 2020


The problem with this analysis is that an unclaimed prize is not necessarily an unpurchased prize. It's entirely possible, and not necessarily irrational, for a player faced with the above scenario to think that with 10 tickets left (and there is no way posted information could be that current) the chances are pretty good that the one big prize has been purchased but not claimed. In fact, that's far more likely than the chance that the prize hasn't been purchased. However, with 10,000 cards available, the chance that a winner is still actually available is likely greater, and what the authors see as a less than optimal choice may, in fact, be the more rational option.

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