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Tuesday, November 17, 2020

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Sorry but if you scan the figure - the trend line on cigarettes consumer per week actually drops and drops dramatically after 2012. Yet you conclude: "The shallower decline in cigarette consumption in Australia implies that plain packaging actually increased consumption by about six cigarettes per week." I am missing something here?

The decrease looks more dramatic than it is because the authors fit separate regressions for before and after 2012. Putting that aside, there was a decrease in both countries, but New Zealand, the control group in this study, had a steeper decrease, implying that Australia's decrease would have been even steeper had they not passed the plain packaging law. (I am also putting aside here the critiques of the study by Cancer Center Victoria, which I believe are valid.)

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